As the New Brunswick election campaign entered its first full week, a new poll indicated the Liberals were leading the incumbent Tories by a slight margin in terms of voting intentions.
But when the margin of error is factored in, the parties appeared to be in a very tight race.
The results from the Mainstreet Research poll, released as the campaign began Thursday, were drawn from an automated telephone survey of 609 adults between Sept. 15 and Sept. 17.
The poll suggests the Liberals — led by Susan Holt — had support from 35 per cent of those surveyed, just ahead of the Tories at 32 per cent. The Green Party had 10 per cent and the People’s Alliance party was a distant fourth at three per cent.
All other parties, including the NDP, were at two per cent, and undecided voters made up 18 per cent of the results.
The poll, commissioned by Mainstreet, has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points with a 95 per cent confidence level.
Even when undecided voters were removed from the sample, the Liberals and Tories were only a two points apart, and support for the Greens jumped to only 13 per cent.
As for the party leaders, when respondents were asked if they had a favourable or unfavourable view of Progressive Conservative Leader Blaine Higgs, 51 per cent said they held a very or somewhat unfavourable view. Another 11 per cent said they didn’t know, with the remainder (37 per cent) saying their opinion of Higgs was very or somewhat favourable.
In general, respondents had a more positive view of Holt, with 46 per cent saying their view was very or somewhat favourable, and another 31 per cent saying their opinion of her was very or somewhat unfavourable. Twenty-three per cent said they didn’t know.
Still, the Conservatives received some positive news when respondents were asked whether they supported or were opposed to the Tory government’s decision last year to amend its school policy for sexual orientation and gender identity, also known as Policy 713.
The new policy requires teachers to get parental consent before they can use the preferred pronouns of students under 16 years old.
In all, 50 per cent of those surveyed said their supported the change while 35 per cent were opposed, and the remainder did not have an opinion.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 23, 2024.