Early data on British Columbia’s snowpack for the year suggests the province could be at risk of drought once again.
The B.C. River Forecast Centre’s Feb. 1 snowpack report confirmed what many have already observed: January was unusually dry.
That’s resulted in a loss of snowpack across the province. The provincial average stood at 87 per cent of normal on Jan. 1, but sild to 72 per cent by Feb. 1.
“Which is a really substantial drop,” B.C. River Forecast Centre hydrologist Jonathan Boyd told Global News.
“It was pretty well on pace for the lowest snow accumulation we’ve had in the last 30 years or so.”
Boyd explained that B.C. has typically seen about two-thirds of the snowfall that will accumulate by Feb. 1 every year.
While we are currently in a La Nina climate pattern, which can sometimes see the snow season extend a little further into late April or early May, the current data suggests B.C. will see lower-than-average accumulation this year, he added.
That means the province would need to see some “really big months” in February and March to get back to a “normal snowpack,” Boyd said.
“From a flood perspective, it’s definitely a positive, not seeing any ridiculously high areas of the province,” he said.
“But now that we are below normal in the snowpack, it does increase the risks for potential drought in spring and summer.”
While the current snow situation is a potential warning sign of another year of drought, Boyd cautioned that many factors could still change that outcome.
He noted that most areas of the province still have more snow than they did this time last year. On Feb. 1, 2024, B.C.’s provincial average was just 61 per cent of normal.
While last year was a challenging drought year, Boyd said conditions were better than the worst-case scenario.
By contrast, the previous year saw even worse drought, despite healthier snowpack.
“The driving force was actually record-breaking hot temperatures in May that drove the snowmelt,” he said.
How the province’s water situation develops will hinge heavily on the weather in the months ahead, said Boyd.
Officials will also have a better grasp on the situation come spring.
“The gold standard, the measuring bar is April 1,” Boyd said. “That usually represents that peak of the snow accumulation season.”