With just one week to go before federal election day, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is blitzing British Columbia.
Singh spent his third consecutive day campaigning in the province, and second straight day on Vancouver Island where one political scientist says the fate of his party may play out.
Of the NDP’s 25 seats at Parliament’s dissolution, more than half were in British Columbia, and include six of the seven seats up for grabs on Vancouver Island.
“This is the do-or-die province for the NDP nationally,” University of Victoria political scientist Michael Prince told Global News.
“Depending on how well they do in Ontario, which is not looking good right now … if he’s going to achieve official party status of 12 seats in the next House of Commons, that’s probably going to be determined here in B.C. and particularly here on Vancouver Island.”
In Comox and Nanaimo on Monday, Singh stumped on a pledge to expand pharmacare to include all essential medications, arguing the Liberals could not be trusted to expand social programs without the NDP to press them.
Singh denied he was playing defence and trying to shore up support in an area polls show could be vulnerable to the Conservatives.
“Most elections we have visited the island, it’s really important for me. We’ve done that, I think, on every election I have been the leader, we’ve spent time in the Lower Mainland in every election I have been leader, these are important areas,” he told reporters.
At the same time, amid polls showing a two-horse national race between the Liberals and the Conservatives, Singh has been hammering the message that on Vancouver Island, the race is a head-to-head orange-versus-blue competition.
“If you are on the island and you are worried about how do I stop the Conservatives, vote New Democrat. New Democrats beat Conservatives,” he said.
Prince said that historically, with the exception of the Victoria area, it is true that Vancouver Island has typically eschewed the Liberals and voted either Conservative or NDP, with a few recent Green wins.
“There’s been more of a comfort level of voting either on the right or on the left, not much room on the centre,” he said, adding Carney had visited the region once and likely would not return during the campaign.
The Tories certainly believe the territory is competitive, he added, noting that Poilievre has visited the island multiple times in recent years, including twice during the campaign.
On those stops, Poilievre has focused heavily on public safety and crime — an issue that’s regularly made headlines in the region.
“Here in British Columbia, people are more afraid than ever before of crime,” Poilievre said during a March 28 campaign stop in Nanaimo.
“As our (Nanaimo-Ladysmith) candidate Tamara Kronis will tell you, when she goes door knocking she will meet people who are struggling with fear, who are worried their cars will be stolen that people addicted to drugs might rob them in order to pay for their addiction. We see addicts on street corners hunched over and tent cities that are routinely taken down and then pop up soon afterwards.”
Recent polling also suggests several ridings are in play, particularly on the North Island.
According to a recent Research Co. poll of more than 400 people, 45 per cent of voters in the North Island-Powell River riding plan to vote for Conservative candidate Aaron Gunn, compared to 23 per cent for the NDP’s Tanille Johnston.
In Nanaimo-Ladysmith, the NDP’s Lisa Marie Barron won her seat in 2021 by fewer than 1,000 votes over Conservative Tamara Kronis. Both candidates are running again this time.
With a week to go and tight races up and down the island, Prince says there remains plenty of time for the race to break in different directions.
How it breaks, however, will play an outsized role in both Singh and the NDP’s fate.
“This is the province that will decide the future of their leader and the future of their party in the next Parliament,” Prince said.