After a drawn-out campaign overshadowed by upheaval in Ottawa and threats from the United States, Quebec Liberals will choose a new leader this weekend who they hope will revive the party from years of inertia.
The Liberals suffered back-to-back defeats to François Legault’s upstart Coalition Avenir Québec in 2018 and 2022. The party has struggled to connect to francophone voters in regions outside of Montreal, and has failed to benefit from Legault’s waning popularity in recent years.
Instead, the sovereigntist Parti Québécois has surged in the polls and seems poised to form the next government, despite holding just five of the 125 seats in the provincial legislature. With the next election set for October 2026 in a province known for dramatic electoral swings, the pressure is on for the Liberals to prove they’re still a vital force.
The question card-carrying Liberals must answer before choosing their new leader is simple, said Pablo Rodriguez, a leadership candidate and former federal minister. “Who can beat François Legault and the Parti Québécois?” said Rodriguez, 57. “Who can bring us back to power in 2026?”
The timing of the campaign, which began in January, has made it difficult for the party to capture the public’s attention. Former prime minister Justin Trudeau’s decision to resign kicked off a whirlwind federal leadership race in February, followed by a general election, with U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats of tariffs and annexation looming over it all.
“The (Quebec) leadership race has unfortunately been drowned out,” said Sébastien Dallaire, an executive vice-president with the polling firm Léger.
Rodriguez, the most well-known of the five candidates, is the presumed front-runner. After nine years in Trudeau’s government, he left Ottawa last September to seek the provincial leadership and has emphasized his lengthy political resumé. A Léger survey of the general population published in May showed him leading his rivals by a wide margin.
But the party’s leadership rules make it hard to predict the results, which will be revealed at a convention in Quebec City on Saturday, said Sophie Villeneuve, a political analyst and former Parti Québécois staffer. The Liberals have assigned an equal number of points to each of Quebec’s 125 ridings. In each riding, one third of the points are reserved for members aged 25 and younger.
That means the winner will have to appeal to young voters and those outside Montreal. That could be a challenge for Rodriguez, whose federal seat was in the city, Villeneuve said. “I think that Mr. Rodriguez is very well-known in Montreal, but not so well-known in the regions of Quebec,” she said. “And it’s through the regions that the Liberal party can hope to win back the trust of Quebec voters.”
Although there is some overlap among members, the provincial Liberals are not affiliated with the federal Liberal party.
The Quebec Liberals currently hold just 19 seats in the provincial legislature, mostly in and around Montreal. The concentration of Liberal voters in the city has allowed them to hang on to Official Opposition status.
Karl Blackburn, former president of a Quebec employers group who hails from the Saguenay area, said the Liberals need to re-establish themselves as the party of the economy and the regions. “Mr. Rodriguez is zero for two on these issues,” said Blackburn, 57, who is leaning heavily on his business credentials.
Blackburn’s campaign has commissioned a poll of party members that it claims shows Rodriguez with a slight lead, but not enough to win on the first round of the party’s ranked ballot system. His team says Rodriguez’s support is focused in Montreal, which could give Blackburn an advantage in a second round, when voters’ down-ballot choices would be counted.
Villeneuve also predicted there will be no winner in the first round. But she said Blackburn, who was a member of the provincial legislature during the Liberal government of former premier Jean Charest, “represents the Liberal party’s past” at a time when it’s looking for renewal.
Meanwhile, Charles Milliard, former head of the federation of Quebec chambers of commerce, is pitching himself as the youthful option. A political newcomer, he compared himself in an interview to charismatic Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, who had never held office before taking the reins of the party in 2020.
“I like the way he does politics,” said Milliard, 45. “We obviously have different views on the future of Quebec, but I think it would be a very interesting match next year.”
Marc Bélanger, an international trade lawyer, and Mario Roy, an economist and farmer, are also seeking the party’s leadership.
The leading candidates offer similar lines on many of the major issues facing Quebec. They’ve attacked Legault’s record on the economy, pointing to the record $13.6-billion deficit the government tabled this year. They’ve expressed openness to new pipeline projects in Quebec, which have long been a non-starter in the province.
And they’re promising to unify Quebecers after years of what they call divisive politics under the Coalition Avenir Québec government, pointing to Legault’s focus on identity issues such as immigration, secularism and the French language.
“The first job of a premier is to unite the people, not to divide them,” Rodriguez said. “So just by changing the tone, that will change a lot of things.”
They’re also presenting the Liberals as the best option for those who want to avoid another referendum on independence, which the Parti Québécois has promised to hold by 2030.
“I really feel that Quebecers are due for a change,” Blackburn said. “And that change won’t be a referendum like Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon is proposing. It will be a vision that looks to the future.”
Regardless of who the party elects on Saturday, the Liberals will have their work cut out for them if they’re to have a shot at forming the next government, Dallaire said.
“Somehow the long-standing relationship between the Liberal party and their francophone voters in Quebec got broken,” he said. “It should be the first priority of the new leader to put forth a program that more francophones can relate to. It’s really been the major issue for the party for the better part of a decade.”