Canada’s top doctor is amplifying a call for Canadians to reduce their number of contacts each day to “only essential activities” or else the coronavirus pandemic will continue to surge.
Should appropriate efforts not be made, Dr. Theresa Tam says Canada could see 20,000 cases daily by the end of December, with a subsequent increase in hospitalizations and deaths.
It will require a “combined effort” of actions by individual Canadians and public health authorities, Tam said.
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“For individual Canadians this means, whenever possible, reducing the number of people we come into contact with each day, while maintaining hand hygiene, physical distancing, and face-mask wearing precautions,” she said.
“For public health authorities, it means implementing time-limited restrictions and control measures to further reduce the number of people coming into contact each day across the population.”
Tam released updated projections for the spread of the novel coronavirus in Canada on Friday.
If Canadians don’t strictly limit their contact with people outside their households, the new forecasts predict a dramatic rise in cases over the next few weeks — as much as 60,000 new cases a day by the end of the year, under a worst-case scenario.
“Rapid growth nationally is being driven primarily by the six provinces outside the Atlantic bubble. Although there are regional differences, all these jurisdictions are seeing extremely steep increases in infection rates,” Tam said.
“Over the past week alone, each of these provinces has marked their highest daily case counts to date.”
Daily national coronavirus case tallies have grown dramatically over the past couple of months. The new modelling shows just how rapidly the epidemic growth is continuing — about 15 per cent more daily cases were reported this week compared to last.
In mid-October, Canada had about 2,300 new cases of COVID-19 diagnosed each day. By November, that number grew to above 4,000. In the past week, it has hovered near 5,000.
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Some parts of Canada are already feeling a strain on their health care systems as a result.
In Alberta, some elective surgeries have been cancelled as a result of overwhelmed hospitals. In Ontario, ICU bed capacity has hit the “critical” mark that could lead to surgeries being cancelled.
Tam said the same culprits are to blame for the growing numbers.
Many of the new cases are “linked to informal gatherings with family and friends, where distancing and mask-wearing aren’t being observed,” she said.
“This is imposing a heavy strain on public health.”
The officials acknowledged that these changes in behaviour will be particularly hard as the December holiday season approaches, but that the “urgency” to bring infection rates down should come first.
“We are all tired, we are all lonely, and we all want our lives back. But we can’t give up now,” federal Health Minister Patty Hajdu
“So let’s all pitch in to get everyone there safely. Each decision we make matters. Think about the choices you’re making carefully because lives actually depend on it. Is my travel essential? Do I need to go out today? Can I reduce my shopping time? Do I need to have that dinner?”
— with files from the Canadian Press