The provincial government has released COVID-19 modelling twice during this pandemic but, so far, has not released modelling projected for the fall.
As cases continue to rise in the province, the Alberta NDP called Thursday for that modelling to be made public.
“In order to curb the spread, we need to know what we’re facing and we need to be prepared.
“The UCP needs to be honest and transparent with Albertans, which means they must release updated modeling,” said NDP Health Critic David Shepherd.
Modelling information previously released by the province showed various scenarios of infection, estimated how many Albertans would require hospitalization or critical care and predicted how many deaths the province could see.
READ MORE: ‘Probable’ Alberta COVID-19 model predicts 400-3,100 deaths: Kenney
“I will not sugar coat it. You need to know what we are up against,” Premier Jason Kenney said on April 7, when the province’s first modelling data was released.
However, little information about projections for the province has been given since the second modelling was shared on April. 28.
Alberta’s new COVID-19 models are ‘encouraging’: Kenney
READ MORE: Alberta updates COVID-19 modelling, adds low ‘likely’ scenario
Global News asked Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Deena Hinshaw on Sept. 24 why updated modelling had not been shared with Albertans.
At that time, Hinshaw said that models do not predict the future.
“While we are looking at different modelling to help us answer very specific questions, that overall question of what might we see in the fall, I don’t think we need a model to tell us that,” she said.
“We already know if we don’t follow public health measures, we could see that so-called second wave. If we do, we’ll see relatively stable and constant cases over time. It’s all in our hands.”
READ MORE: Marginal increase in COVID-19 cases among B.C. children since start of school, province reports
In the days following, both Ontario and B.C. have released updated modelling.
READ MORE: Latest COVID-19 modelling suggests Ontario could see around 1,000 cases a day in October
Global News asked Hinshaw again on Monday why Albertans were not able to see the latest projections for the province.
“What we experienced in the spring is that modelling as a future forecast isn’t particularly helpful when it’s anchored to particular dates. What modelling can help us do more effectively is to help us look at different scenarios,” she said on Oct. 5.
“The modelling we are undertaking is more about those kinds of planning scenarios and it’s not yet complete.
“So, those discussions to complete the models, to make sure that we have the time to have the discussions with our decision makers, haven’t yet happened.”
–with files from Phil Heidenreich