Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative party and a conservative-linked pressure group are ratcheting up digital advertising targeting Mark Carney amidst a Liberal resurgence in national polls.
The Conservatives’ latest English-language ad labels Carney as “sneaky” – Poilievre and co.’s preferred nickname for the former central banker – and was blasted out 198 times since March 11, two days after Carney’s landslide victory in the Liberal leadership race.
That’s in addition to ads the party has been running referring to “Carbon Tax Carney” – despite the Liberal leader’s pledge to get rid of consumer carbon pricing – and suggesting U.S. President Donald Trump would seize on Carney’s “weakness,” which have been running since Feb. 28.
In both cases, the ads were targeted mostly at voters in Ontario and British Columbia – two key provinces for any party looking to form a majority government in the next election.
The campaigns capitalize on two advantages Conservatives have, even as national polling has dramatically tightened: time and money.
Pierre Poilievre’s team has had two years to prepare their digital outreach machine – a crucial component of modern election campaigns – and are flush with cash from record-setting donations from that period.
Carney, once he becomes prime minister on Friday, is expected to have more like two weeks to get the Liberal campaign machine retooled and ready.
“It’s a race to define (Carney). As much as he’s known for his resume, I’m not sure people know Mark Carney all that well beyond a couple of top-line points,” said Dennis Matthews, the president of Creative Currency and a former advertising adviser to Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
“There’s going to be incredible interest. He’s a new prime minister, but people form their opinions quickly and there’s a race between him trying to do it on his terms and the Conservatives trying to do it on their terms.”
But Matthews noted that the Conservatives’ considerable war chest for advertising spending is a factor to watch.
“Nobody goes into, call it $10 million or more in negative advertising and comes out looking better,” Matthews said.
According to Meta’s Ad Library, the Conservative Party of Canada has spent nearly $6.8 million on Facebook and Instagram advertising since June 2019, including $117,377 between March 3 and March 9.
The attacks don’t appear to have stuck, at least not yet. A Léger poll conducted for the Canadian Press, released Wednesday, suggested the Conservatives and Liberals were tied neck-and-neck in popular support at 37 per cent. In Ontario, Léger had the parties tied at 39 per cent.
Léger interviewed 1,548 voting-aged Canadians between March 7 and March 10, and the results are considered accurate within 2.49 percentage points.
Léger’s numbers mirror findings across multiple polling firms that suggest the Conservatives’ months-long lead in popular support has been significantly diminished in the wake of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation announcement and the persistent threat of Trump’s trade war.
Several Conservative MPs contacted by Global News over the past week denied there was any need for Poilievre and the party to change tactics in the face of slumping national polling. The MPs were granted anonymity to speak freely about internal party matters.
While some did admit to tempered expectations compared to the heady days when the party was polling north of 40 per cent, most suggested they were anxious to get to the election.
“We’re still seeing the very same things that we saw last year. If you couldn’t afford a place to live or put food on the table in December, that hasn’t really changed in March,” one MP said.
“Uncertainty and fear doesn’t drive back to what we’re seeing narrative-wise. It’s actually probably helpful to (the Conservative message that) we need to do something different here.”
“The reality on the ground is people are being told, obviously, that they will feel the impact of the Trump stuff … but nobody knows what the solution about that is at the doors. But they know that that’s a new concern,” another MP said.
“But the moment you start talking to them about their life, it’s like, ‘throw the bums out.’”
The Conservative party isn’t the only group targeting Carney with a slew of negative ads on Facebook and Instagram, however. Canada Proud, a right-wing pressure group dedicated to boosting Canadian conservative causes, has run at least 29 ads targeting Carney since late February.
Jeff Ballingall, the founder of Mobilize Media Group and Canada Proud, said recent changes to Facebook and Instagram’s algorithms – driven by CEO Mark Zuckerberg – have resulted in a significant boost to the campaign. He described Zuckerberg’s changes as “really fun.”
The campaign is meant to “teach Canadians about Mark Carney’s record and his agenda for Canada,” Ballingall said. Ballingall estimated Canada Proud has purchased between $150,000 and $200,000 in advertising for the campaign, all from donors to the cause.
Ballingall said Canada Proud will cease advertising once the election is called and more stringent rules around third-party advertising kick in.