There are emerging signs that the trade war is beginning to impact international trade, and consumers in Canada, and especially the United States, could soon find empty shelves if there isn’t some form of relief soon.
New data from container shipment tracking company Vizion shows cargo shipments from China to the United States and the United States exporting to China are starting to dwindle as companies look to avoid new tariffs imposed by the United States.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policy with China involves a 145 per cent duty on all imports, and in response, China has imposed a 125 per cent tariff on all products shipped into the country from the United States.
“So, if you have $100 million in Chinese goods in a container at the port of Los Angeles, you have to pay $145 million to have them released. Those are monstrous sums,” says Santo Ligotti at the Retail Council of Canada, adding that as these tariffs lead to fewer imports, “U.S. consumers will soon see shortages or tariff price increases.”
Although these specific trade tensions may seem isolated between the United States and China, there is a very real possibility that it will send a ripple effect to other nations, which could even see Canadian consumers could pay the price.
“It’s significant when you have the two big economic gorillas starting to fight,” said Matt Poirier, vice-president of federal government relations at the Retail Council of Canada. “Even though we’re not part of that fight, we’re in the ring with them.”
Canadian businesses that get their goods from U.S. suppliers may face higher prices if those partners are impacted by tariffs, including if individual parts or components are sourced from China.
“Given the interconnected nature of our supply chains, there’s a very good chance that, sooner rather than later, the costs for Canadian and American consumers will rise,” says Pascal Chan at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.
“Many orders placed on Canadian sites pass through American distribution centres. Or, in the case of electronic products, there may be components manufactured in China but assembled in the United States.”
Although consumers, including in Canada and in the U.S., may find the situation appears mostly stable right now, with store shelves and warehouses seemingly well-stocked, there is a specific reason shelves are not empty just yet.
Chan says that is mainly because companies rushed to fill warehouses before tariffs kicked in, “the first quarter of 2025 saw a boost in trade as businesses stockpiled goods to minimize the pain promised by the imposition of tariffs. But the knock-on effects of turbulent tariff changes can only be held off for so long.”
The uncertainty of the trade war is leading many suppliers to prepare for possible supply chain shortages once these stockpiles run out.
“I think that it will vary, but you’re not going to see the widespread shortage of goods in the near term. But that could be forthcoming at some point in time,” says Bruce Rodgers at the Canadian International Freight Forwarders Association.
Trade talks are set to continue between China and the United States, and companies are hoping there will be some form of tariff relief soon.
Rodgers says until then, businesses are “in a holding pattern at this point in time.”
“So the freight’s coming in, it is being unloaded into warehouses and our warehouses are getting filled up, just waiting for that relief of tariffs.”