For the past two decades, being chosen to carry the Conservative banner in a federal election in Calgary was almost a sure ticket to a seat in Parliament as the city has been, and continues to be, a stronghold of Conservative support.
In 2021, George Chahal was the only Liberal amongst the 10 members of Parliament that Calgarians sent to Ottawa after he defeated Conservative incumbent Jag Sihota, by less than 3,000 votes in the riding of Calgary Skyview.
In the 2015 federal election there were just two Liberal MPs among the 10 from Calgary who were elected.
The redistribution of some federal ridings and the addition of three more in Alberta means there are now 11 Calgary ridings in Calgary — and some Liberals have hopes of sending a few more MPs to Ottawa.
Calgary’s booming population means the boundaries of many ridings in this year’s federal election have been redrawn since the last time Calgarians cast their ballot and one more riding has been added, bringing the total number of ridings in the city to 11.
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For political pundits, Duane Bratt and Lori Williams of Mount Royal University, the ridings they’ll be keeping an eye on are Calgary McKnight, Calgary Confederation, Calgary Skyview, Calgary Centre and Calgary East.
Calgary McKnight
This election, George Chahal is running in the new riding of Calgary McKnight, which was created when the boundaries of several Calgary ridings were redrawn.
Chahal was the centre of some controversy following last federal election when he was fined $500 for violating the Elections Canada Act after being caught on a doorbell camera removing an opponent’s election pamphlet from a front door and replacing it with his own.
Despite that, Mount Royal Political Scientist, Duane Bratt, expects Chahal will be re-elected because despite the impact the controversy may have had on his personal popularity, he should benefit from the popularity of federal Liberal leader Mark Carney according to recent polling.
“Political scientists have done a lot of research on this question over a lot of election cycles and while there’s the odd exception, by and large the individual candidate makes between a three and five per cent difference,” said Bratt.
“Everything else is about party and leader, but in a very tight race that could be decided by a couple hundred votes, that three per cent matters.”
Chahal’s main competition is expected to be real estate agent Dalwinder Gill, who is running for the Conservatives.
George Chahal was the only Liberal MP elected in Calgary in the last federal election, but the boundaries of his riding of Calgary Skyview have since been redrawn, so this election he’s running in Calgary McKnight.
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Arlington Antonio is the NDP candidate, Evelyn Tanaka is running for the Green party, Najeeb Butt is the People’s Party Candidate, Benjamin Cridland for the Canadian Future Party and Syed Hasnain will carry the Centrist Party banner.
Calgary Confederation
In the riding of Calgary Confederation, incumbent Conservative MP Len Webber is retiring after 11 years in Ottawa.
In 2021 he won the riding by more than 10,000 votes over his Liberal opponent Murray Sigler, and his retirement now leaves the door open to challengers.
Jeremy Nixon, a former MLA with the provincial United Conservative Party is running for the Conservatives after her was appointed as the candidate by the party.
Corey Hogan, a popular podcaster and vice-president of communications at the University of Calgary is running for the Liberals after the party dropped their original candidate, Thomas Keeper, after he failed to disclose to the party a 20-year-old domestic assault charge that was eventually stayed.
Bratt said the decision by long-time Conservative MP Len Webber, not to run again, leaves the race in the riding of Calgary Confederation, wide open.
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“I think that the confederation race has been interesting since Corey Hogan announced that he would be running there,” said Bratt. “The demographics there suggest that there is a good chance that a Liberal could win — and the fact there isn’t an incumbent running in that riding, that makes a difference. If Hogan pulls this off and Carney wins, I would expect that Hogan would be in cabinet.”
“For some people the possibility of electing a cabinet minister from Calgary is hugely appealing,” added Mount Royal political scientist Lori Williams. “I know for some communities that’s a very significant consideration.”
Keira Gunn will carry the NDP banner in Calgary Confederation, Richard Willott is the Green candidate, Kevan Hunter is running for the Marxist-Leninist, Jeffrey Reid Marsh for the Canadian Future Party and Artyom Ovsepyan is the People’s Party candidate.
Calgary Centre
In Calgary Centre, Conservative Greg McLean is running for re-election against Lindsay Luhnau of the Liberals and Beau Shaw of the NDP.
MacLean was first elected in 2019, but before that the riding was represented by Liberal MP Kent Hehr who also spent time in the federal cabinet. Luhnau will be hoping to recapture some of that past support for the Liberals.
While Shaw’s focus on social issues may help him attract some voters from the densely-populated riding that includes downtown Calgary and the Beltline, the New Democrat is unlikely to pose a serious challenge to the two front runners.
“I think because this election really matters to people and many of them live in ridings where it’s close — where it is just impossible to predict what the outcome is going to be simply because it comes down to voter turnout in many cases who actually shows up to the polls,” said Williams.
The other parties with candidates in Calgary Centre are the Green Party, People’s Party and Rhinoceros Party.
Riding redistribution means there is no incumbent MP in the riding of Calgary Skyview, so the race could be a close one because of its history of flip-flopping back and forth between the Conservatives and the Liberals.
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Calgary Skyview
In Calgary Skyview, there is no incumbent because the ridings boundaries were redrawn, but before redistribution, it flip-flopped between the Liberals and Conservatives.
In 2015 Liberal Darshan Kang was elected, in 2019 voters chose Conservative Jag Sihota and in 2021 George Chahal won it for the Liberals.
But Chahal is running in a different riding this election, so the race in Calgary-Skyview is wide open and as one of Calgary’s most ethnically-diverse ridings with no high-profile candidates, it is one many people will be closely watching on election night.
The race this year has turned into a nasty one between Hafeez Malik for the Liberals and Amanpreet Gill for the Conservatives — and if history is a guide, it could be a close one according to experts Global News spoke to.
“Skyview went Liberal in 2015 and it went Liberal 2021. If you look at where Liberal parties do the best, they’re in downtown cores, university areas and large visible minorities and Northeast Calgary represents that,” said Bratt.
Rajesh Angral is running for the NDP and there are also three independent candidates.
Calgary East
One other redrawn riding that Williams will be keeping an eye on is Calgary East, which was known as Calgary Forest Lawn before redistribution.
While Williams doesn’t think the Liberals will win in the riding, the fact they have a high-profile candidate — Priti Obhrai-Martin, who is the daughter of former Conservative MP, Deepak Obhrai — demonstrates “an unusual openness” to the Liberal party.
The riding of Calgary East is another new riding in the city. It includes most of the riding previously known as Calgary Forest Lawn.
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Deepak Obhrai represented the previous riding of Calgary Forest Lawn for more than 22 years before he passed away from liver cancer in August of 2019.
His successor, Conservative Jasraj Hallan, is the incumbent, after being elected in 2019 and 2021.
The NDP, Green Party, People’s Party, Christian Heritage and Communist Party are also fielding candidates in Calgary East – but like in the other Calgary ridings, the only real challenge to the Conservatives will come from the Liberals according to Williams.
The NDP finished second in three Calgary ridings in the 2021 election, but this year, the biggest challenge to the Conservatives is expected to come from the Liberals.
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If the federal election was held just a few months ago, the Conservatives could have swept Calgary said Bratt. But since then, “Trudeau resigned and Trump got inaugurated and so that has led to a surge in support for the Liberals nationwide, including in the city of Calgary.”
Despite the Liberal’s optimism in some ridings, there are still a few Conservatives expected to be untouchable given their popularity in previous elections, including Pat Kelly in Calgary Crowfoot, Michelle Rempel-Garner in Calgary Nose Hill and Stephanie Kusie in Calgary Midnapore.
For information on your riding and polling station, visit the Elections Canada website.
Election night coverage
Decision Canada, Global News’ network-wide election night broadcast, will air live on April 28 across the country at 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT. The special will be hosted by Dawna Friesen alongside senior national affairs correspondent Eric Sorenson, and chief political correspondent David Akin, who will bring viewers up-to-date information throughout the evening and results across Canada’s key ridings.
Joining the election night team is host of Canada’s #1 political show*, The West Block, Mercedes Stephenson, as well political panelists including former Minister of Labour of Canada, Seamus O’Regan, former Minister of Transport of Canada, Lisa Raitt, former Shadow Minister for Finance of Canada, Nathen Cullen, former leader of The Bloc Québécois, Gilles Duceppe, and more.
Covering the campaign headquarters on election night are Global News journalists Mackenzie Gray, Touria Izri, Neetu Garcha, and Mike Amstrong. Ben Mulroney, Host of the nationally syndicated radio show, The Ben Mulroney Show, will also be joining the team with coverage and analysis from the Conservative Party Headquarters.
Corus Talk Radio network will air election coverage across it network hosted by Ben O’Hara Byrne and featuring live analysis of the results and the impact the decision will have on Canadians.
Coverage will air on Global TV and will also be streamed live on globalnews.ca, the Global TV app and YouTube.
Special coverage of Alberta results will air on Global Calgary, Global Edmonton and Global Lethbridge following the network special broadcast.