The Canadian Hurricane Centre is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season this year, but the actual impact on their response zone is yet to be seen.
Bob Robichaud, a warning preparedness meteorologist with the centre, said while they are able to forecast the level of activity in a given hurricane season, it’s impossible to predict how many storms will actually form or make landfall because that depends on weather conditions at the time.
“Where these storms go is another thing entirely,” he said. “Sometimes you can have a very active season but the storm track keeps the storms off shore and you have lower impacts.”
He said that historically, 35 to 40 per cent of storms that form in the Atlantic Ocean will enter their response zone each year.
Last year it was a low percentage, and only one — Ernesto — directly made impact in August. Indirect impacts of other storms, including Debby in August, did affect the Atlantic provinces.
“These predictions at the seasonal scale are not really predictions of where these storms will go or what areas will be affected, it’s just a prediction of the total hurricane activity in the Atlantic region,” said Robichaud.
American forecasters released their annual forecast yesterday — calling for an above-average season.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted a 60 per cent chance of an above-normal season, with a 30 per cent chance of a normal season. Their outlook is calling for 13 to 19 named storms, of which six to 10 would be hurricanes, and three to five would be major hurricanes.
Factors for the above-average outlook include a lack of El Nino to impede hurricane development, warmer than normal temperatures in the Atlantic basin, and a northern shift of the West African monsoon.
Last year, the Canadian Hurricane Centre predicted 17 to 25 named storms, and there were 18 that actually formed.
Robichaud said that these forecasts are an important reminder for people to prepare by identifying their personal risks, and then mitigating them.
“To really get prepared for some of these more extreme events, it’s really important to know your risks. It may be different for everybody,” he said.
“If somebody is on a well, for example, a power outage will be very different compared to someone who is not (on well water) who will continue to have water during a power outage.”
Another important risk factor is proximity to the coast, and whether evacuation is needed.
“Those are the things that should be considered now, not when the storm is approaching, not when the storm is on the map,” he said.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 until Nov. 30, with the peak typically between mid-August and mid-October.