After an incredibly close byelection vote Tuesday, Manitoba’s Progressive Conservatives have held on to their seat in Spruce Woods, but one expert says the result can be seen as a victory for the NDP as well — or at least as a sign that no riding in the province is truly “safe.”
Although results have yet to be verified, Tory Colleen Robbins is the presumptive winner, with 2,805 votes to New Democrat Ray Berthelette’s 2,735 — a razor-thin margin of only 70 votes.
Kelly Saunders of Brandon University told 680 CJOB’s The Start that’s about as tight a race as you can get.
“It’s a huge win, really, for the NDP,” Saunders said.
“Yes, the (Progressive) Conservatives won the seat at the end of the day — as (PC Leader) Obby Khan said, a win is a win — but to see the way the NDP were able to close that margin, I think was a bit of a victory for them as well.”
Saunders said the byelection also served as a test for Khan, who took over the reins of the PC party in April. Spruce Woods has been a PC stronghold since its formation in 2011, and the fact that it was such a tight race, she said, isn’t the best sign for Khan’s nascent leadership.
“This is the first time he’s had to face voters as the new leader of the PC party … and to show that the party is strong, it’s coming back, it’s rebuilding in a really substantive way.
“(The result was) not so great for him. It shows that the party still has a long way to go. This should’ve been an easy win for the Conservatives.”
On the other hand, Premier Wab Kinew should be pleased with his party’s narrow loss, Saunders said, given that the riding is primarily rural.
“Eighty per cent of Spruce Woods is small towns in southwest Manitoba — only 20 per cent takes in a portion of Brandon, so I think he’s got bragging rights to say, ‘Yeah, we are a party that’s a player out in rural Manitoba.’”
The byelection was held due to former MLA Grant Jackson resigning his seat to run for the federal Conservatives in Brandon-Souris in 2025, an election he won handily, with over 60 per cent of the vote.
University of Winnipeg political science professor Malcolm Bird told Global Winnipeg he predicted a PC win but wasn’t expecting the result to be as tight as it was.
“I was not expecting that, and if you actually look at the vote count, the NDP received … the most votes they’ve received in that riding, certainly over the last five elections,” Bird said. “So this was quite a surprising outcome for many observers.
“I guess the big question for both the NDP and the PCs is, ‘Is this an explicit endorsement for Mr. Kinew, or is this a rejection or criticism of Mr. Khan and the Conservative party?”
Bird said he would encourage both parties to do research into the results and why the votes went the way they did — but it would be difficult not to see it as a positive for the NDP.
“I think, on the surface of it, you could see this as an endorsement or a positive outcome for Mr. Kinew.”
