Spring is a time for many Canadian homeowners to finally get started on that remodel they’ve been hoping for. But this year, U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war might throw a wrench into some renovation plans.
Fears of a recession and uncertainty about job security may be weighing on Canadians who were planning a home renovation this year, along with the costs of items on the tariff and counter-tariff lists going up in price — not to mention, expectations that home insurance costs will rise as repairs cost more.
Whether you tackle that big project now or wait likely depends on your risk — and cost — tolerance.
“If you’re working in southern Ontario and you’re connected to the automotive industry, you’re definitely not thinking of doing a renovation probably at this stage,” said Kevin Lee, CEO of the Canadian Home Builders Association.
He added, however, that the conditions were ripe for someone willing to take the risk.
“Conversely, if you’re feeling pretty good and you’re feeling pretty secure, it’s probably a lot easier to hire a renovator in those markets right now than it normally would be.”
Usually, spring is a busy time of year for renovators, and it can be hard for homeowners to get someone to visit right away. This year, Lee said homeowners can leverage the lull in the market to their advantage.
“If you were thinking about a renovation, talk to a renovator. They’re probably not quite as busy. They can probably get to you faster.”
Lee told Global News that while counterparts in the U.S. construction industry were worried about Trump’s tariffs on Canada, Canadian renovators and construction companies were more worried about Canada’s counter-tariffs.
“We already have our phase one still in place. Some appliances are being tariffed coming from the states,” he said.
What could cost more this year?
In March, Canada placed counter-tariffs on $30 billion worth of U.S. goods in response to Trump’s sweeping 25 per cent tariffs on Canada and his additional 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum.
The first list of retaliatory tariffs includes a range of goods and materials that Canadians could use in renovating their homes this spring.
This includes a wide range of ceramic, steel, aluminum and iron products.
Anyone looking to do a kitchen remodel will have to factor in Canadian tariffs on stoves, ranges, grates, cookers, barbecues, braziers, gas-rings, plate warmers and similar non-electric domestic appliances, and related parts made of iron or steel.
Even a simple paint job could cost more, with paint and related accessories on Canada’s list of counter-tariffed goods. Other construction material like U.S.-made wire, rods, tubes, plates, electrodes, hinges, brackets are also included.
Radiators for central heating and electric water heaters from the U.S. will also end up costing more.
Trump’s own tariffs could impact construction costs in Canada, since a lot of Canadian steel and aluminum is made into finished product in the U.S.
“Canada is a huge supplier of aluminum to the United States, but an aluminum clad window, which is a very common type of window, could get manufactured (in the U.S.) that we bring back into Canada,” Lee said.
Canadian manufacturers of intermediary goods depend on their trade partners in the U.S., he added.
“We have a good window manufacturing industry here, but we actually get most of our glass from the United States,” he said.
He added that for many Canadian markets, its easier to get drywall from 100 km across the border than have it shipped 3,000 km from across the country.
“In Western Canada, there tends to be more supply of drywall coming from the United States (compared to Canadian drywall).”
What does that all mean for costs?
The Insurance Bureau of Canada told Global News that they are expecting home insurance costs to rise because the cost of doing repairs and replacing components in a home will rise as a result of U.S. tariffs.
“Home insurance may be impacted as well due to likely increases in the cost of materials used in replacing and repairing homes,” a spokesperson for the Insurance Bureau of Canada said in a statement.
The U.S. and Canadian construction industries, like the car industries in both countries, are highly interlinked.
According to the Canadian Home Builders Association (CHBA), Canada imports around $3.5 billion in glass and glass products, $3.1 billion in major appliances, $2.2 billion in hardware, and about $1 billion in ceramic tile and products from the U.S.
While Canada exports over $20 billion in steel and aluminum to the U.S. annually, it also imports around $17 billion worth of steel and aluminum products.
Gilbert Moore is the CEO of Vancouver-based tech aggregator RepairFind, which connects homeowners to contractors.
“Recent increases in the cost of wire and certain electrical devices — rising by as much as 25 to 30 per cent — are forcing contractors to adjust their original estimates, potentially affecting their competitiveness,” he said.
“These price hikes stem from ongoing supply chain disruptions and tariffs, which continue to drive up material costs across the board.”
Moore expects the overall cost of home renovations to go up anywhere between 15 to 25 per cent.
“For small renovations, like a bathroom, increases could be anywhere from $2,500 to $5,000,” he said.