In one week, Tim Hortons will be rolling up a classic.
On Feb. 24, the coffeehouse will begin its 2025 rendition of the Roll Up the Rim to Win contest, and will once again offer customers a chance to win physically on their coffee cups. For the last several years, the contest was played virtually.
The return of actual cup play was also enough to pique the interest of the man who some might call the champion of the game, Michael Wallace.
An associate professor specializing in statistics at the University of Waterloo, Wallace first gained notoriety in 2020 when he figured out the best time to play was on the last day of the contest.
“That first year I waited till the last day … and I won like 94 times out of 96 plays, like 98 per cent of the time,” he recalled.
That move actually raised eyebrows at Tim Hortons.
“They were a bit confused and maybe concerned that I’d done something actually against the rules or an actual hack,” Wallace said.
“Once we had a conversation about what was actually happening, they seemed like pretty fine with it.”
Timing is everything: Wallace
Things did not go as swimmingly in 2021 or 2022 but in 2023, he used statistical analysis to break down the game again and developed a winning strategy that year with data Tim Horton’s provided on its app.
“I was able to take that data and do some more complex analysis than I had done previously, basically come up with an equation for when was the best time to play, which ended up being … 3:17 a.m. Eastern,” the statistician explained.
“I had data that showed you when was the worst time of day to play and when was the best time of day to play. The worst time to play was 11:45 a.m. Eastern.”
That made sense as people were having lunch in Ontario and breakfast in B.C., which meant there were likely more people playing.
Last year, he took a year away from the game as Wallace felt like “there were no more mountains left to conquer,” but the return of the cups means the Waterloo professor is entering the ring once again.
“This whole thing started when they took away the cups and made it digital,” Wallace explained.
While he has not had a chance to test out his theories, he did pass them along to Global News for those who are looking to increase their odds of winning.
With the return of the physical cups for a limited run, Tim’s will offer people two chances to win — one using the cup, and the second in the digital space.
However, those who bring in a reusable mug will get two digital chances instead, and Wallace recommends this option to players.
“The physical cup gives you something you have no control over. So you, as a player, you get your cup, you have a one-in-six chance — that’s it,” Wallace said.
Sunday morning may present best odds
He warned that his theories all come down to whether the old rules remain in play or not.
“In principle, you should be able to choose a time to play that will give you better odds, that’s my theory,” Wallace opined. “That’s what I expect. Whether or not that ends up being true. I can’t guarantee it.”
He also believes that as long as there are physical cups in play, people will have a better chance of winning digitally as the number of entries would be split between digital and physical.
“The fewer people who play the digital game, the better chances you have if you’re playing the digital game.”
“In 2023, I played 30 times around lunchtime, the worst time of day. I won three coffees, so a one-in-10 win rate,” Wallace said. “And then I played 30 entries at three in the morning and I won 14 coffee and doughnut prizes.”
Without seeing a full version of how this year will play out, he suggests to play during off hours and avoid the time he publicized years ago as more people may be trying their luck at that point.
He has not figured out which day of the week is the best yet, but believes the best odds might be on Sunday morning.
He also suggested that if you are able to save up 50 rolls, you can attempt to experiment with a search for the best times to play on your own.
“I’d maybe play like 10 or so at a certain time and see how well I’m doing and if I’m winning a lot, I’d keep playing,” he said.
“But if I’m not winning as many, I’d probably stop playing and save them for another day or another time.”
Wallace said that he spent time this week helping oncologists looking into cancer solutions while also taking calls about his Tim Hortons fame. He uses all of this information in the classroom as well.
“So I have one entire lecture where I start off with this example and I take them through labs to teach them the methods we need to teach them,” he said.
“And then it just gives me a chance to just talk about this whole weird story of my life of becoming this Tim Hortons’ Roll up the Rim guy.”
This year’s contest runs until March 23.