We are in the final stretch of an election campaign.
A campaign that started with a slight Liberal lead, which grew to a double-digit lead, and appears to be ending in a tight two-way race and a slight Liberal lead once more.
And record turnout at advance polls over the Easter weekend may suggest Canadians are more engaged in this campaign than usual.
But despite affordability, housing and health care consistently ranking as Canadians’ top concerns in our polling, as they have for the past several years, Canada’s shifting relationship with the United States became the driving issue of the campaign. While this is the first time Ipsos has seen Canada-U.S. relations emerge as a top issue, Canadians remain equally, if not more, concerned about core issues here at home. In addition, Canadians, especially older Canadians, are getting on board the “Buy Canadian” train.
Recent data from Ipsos reveals Canadians’ trust in America is eroding, with 58 per cent of Canadians (and 71 per cent of baby boomers) believing they can “never trust the Americans the same way again.” Further, 67 per cent of Canadians believe that our future is better served by aligning with European partners rather than the U.S.
Housing becomes a defining ballot issue
But how will this shifting relationship affect the vote? It is the baby boomers who are most likely to hold these sentiments, who are most likely to “Buy Canadian” and who are most likely to say they will avoid travel to the U.S.
And it is the baby boomers who are increasingly turning to the Liberals. Ipsos polling for Global News shows that 46 per cent of those aged 55-plus intend to vote Liberal, compared with only 33 per cent aged 18 to 34. Among 18- to 34-year-olds, Conservatives lead, with 42 per cent saying they will vote Conservative. That is, if they vote. Historically, younger Canadians have not voted as much as older Canadians.
During the pandemic, baby boomers were more likely to support the interventionist approach of the Liberals, while young people — who were least supportive of vaccines and shutdowns — felt the economic brunt of those shutdowns and became more supportive of the Conservatives.
We now see the baby boomers once again turning to the Liberals to manage their anxiety, this time over U.S. President Donald Trump, as younger Canadians – especially males – stick with the Conservatives.
What brought the baby boomers back into the Liberal camp?
One factor is fear. Until December 2024, Canadians expressed frustration with how things were going in Canada. The Conservative message of “Everything is Broken” resonated with people, including boomers.
But that changed quickly with the inauguration of Trump and the imposition of punitive tariffs, not to mention threats of annexation.
Data from our Ipsos Essentials study in March 2025 shows that while Canadians remain frustrated, they are increasingly also scared and skeptical.
Faced with these stakes, boomers rallied around the flag and sought refuge in the candidate they felt could best protect the Canada they know and built. For many, that candidate has been Liberal Leader Mark Carney.
Frustration and time for a change gave way to fear and preservation, and the Liberals – especially for Canadians – are currently seen as the party that can best deliver that.
The 60-point gap between Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre — in Carney’s favour — on who can best handle the Canada-U.S. relationship is telling.
But what about younger Canadians? For them, the economic insecurities that have dominated the last several years persist. They remain the most vulnerable group to low wages, high inflation and job insecurity, and the fact that they are more likely to have stuck with the Conservatives in their voting intentions reflects this.
Now that the debates are behind us and there remains a pause on most tariffs, it is possible the discussion in the final stretch of the campaign returns to the issues our polls find are top of mind for Canadians. If older Canadians can feel more secure about the existential durability of Canada — if fear is not driving their vote as they enter the ballot box — maybe they will return to the Conservative camp, or vote for one of the smaller parties like the NDP, the Green Party or the Bloc in Quebec.
Every time Trump threatens Canada, fear drives older voters toward the Liberals, potentially determining the election outcome on April 28.
The question remains: will Canadians ultimately vote based on the threats of an American president, or will they refocus on the domestic issues they’ve consistently identified as their true priorities?
Gregory Jack is a senior vice-president of public affairs at Ipsos in Canada, where he leads their Ottawa practice. Previously, he was a senior public servant in the federal and Alberta governments.