Mark Carney and his revitalized Liberal Party have come roaring out of the gate, opening a comfortable lead over Pierre Poilievre and a Conservative campaign that still seems to be waiting for the starter’s pistol.
If the six-point edge we’re seeing in our Ipsos polling for Global News holds through to election day, Carney could be standing on the doorstep of the first majority government in Canada since Justin Trudeau pulled it off in 2015 and engineering the biggest political turnaround in Canadian history.
So, what happened? This election was supposed to be about change.
Instead, it’s turning into a referendum on leadership, especially when it comes to the looming threat posed by Donald Trump and his tariffs.
But while Trump looms large, he isn’t the only force shaping this campaign. In fact, the top issue on voters’ minds isn’t trade or tariffs, it’s the cost of living. And on that front, the contest remains neck and neck.
In late February, Canadians were evenly split on which leader was best equipped to handle Trump’s trade tantrums. That ambiguity has now vanished. Carney holds a 12-point lead over Poilievre. He’s seen as the steadier hand to guide Canada through what many fear will be four more years of chaos to the south.
And that perception is spilling over into broader views of leadership, including who would make the best Prime Minister. Carney now leads Poilievre by 11 points, an even wider margin than the gap between the two parties on vote intent. Canadians may not grasp the finer points of central banking, but they seem comfortable with a leader who has that pedigree.
Of course, Carney has had his stumbles. But voters don’t seem to care. The Liberals are building momentum, and their newly won supporters are growing more certain of their choice.
The clearest signal? A sharp drop in the number of Canadians who say it’s time for a change.
The West Block: March 30
In nearly 40 years as a political pollster, I’ve found this number to be the best barometer of where a campaign is headed. When it rises, the government is in trouble. When it falls, the status quo is back in play. Two months ago, 78 per cent of voters said it was time for a change in government. Today, that number is down to 54 per cent. Meanwhile, 42 per cent say the Carney Liberals deserve to be re-elected, almost exactly what we see in vote support. The mood has shifted, and the Liberals are now on top.
But we shouldn’t skip ahead.
It’s tempting to fall back on old clichés: politics moves fast, a week is a lifetime, anything can happen. All true. But we don’t need clichés. We have data.
And the data tells us the number one issue for Canadians isn’t Trump—not yet. It’s still affordability. Nine-dollar grapes and sky-high mortgages and rents remain more pressing than tariff wars or sovereignty threats.
So how do we reconcile this? If affordability is what keeps voters up at night, why has Trump become such a defining force? The answer lies in the emotional pull of both. While cost-of-living concerns are deeply felt, Trump’s return injects a sense of urgency and unpredictability, especially around Canada’s economic future. It’s not that voters don’t care about trade and tariffs. It’s that Trump is the wildcard who could make everything worse.
That’s where the Liberals shine. On managing the Trump file, they lead the Conservatives by 40 points. That’s right, 40 points.
Affordability, though, is still up for grabs. On cost of living, the Liberals and Conservatives are tied. If the Trump story fades or plateaus, and affordability reclaims centre stage, the Conservatives may still have a path to victory. It’s narrow, but real.
And then there’s Ontario. Despite their national lead, the Liberals are only four points ahead of the Conservatives in Ontario. And in the 905, the cluster of ridings that now decide who governs, Carney and Poilievre are tied. That means the national lead may be misleading. If the Conservatives close the gap in Ontario and pull ahead in the 905, we could be looking at a very different outcome.
So yes, the Liberals are winning the week. They’re winning the narrative too. But campaigns aren’t won in the opening lap. They’re won at the finish line.
And if we’ve learned anything from Canadian politics, it’s this: voters sometimes smile politely at the frontrunner. Right before they pull the rug out from under them.
Darrell Bricker is the Global CEO for Ipsos Public Affairs.