Canada’s border security plan is being celebrated by members of U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s administration and transition team, even as Republicans are unsure if it will prevent threatened tariffs that many Americans appear to not want.
A new poll from Quinnipiac University this week suggests 51 per cent of people in the U.S. oppose Trump’s plan to impose 25 per cent tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico upon taking office next month, and 60 per cent tariffs on Chinese goods. Just 38 per cent of respondents said they support the plan, which many economists say will raise prices for American consumers.
Trump explicitly tied his threat of tariffs to calls for Canada and Mexico to boost security at their respective borders to stop irregular migration and drug smuggling into the U.S.
On Tuesday, Canadian officials announced a $1.3-billion border security plan that seeks to address those issues and others like sex trafficking.
Two social media accounts for Trump’s presidential campaign and transition team have since called Canada’s plan proof that Trump was securing “wins” before he takes office.
“With one statement and one meeting, President-Elect Trump has done more to secure our Northern Border than Joe Biden has in four years,” Karoline Leavitt, the incoming White House press secretary who was Trump’s campaign spokesperson, posted on X. “Incredible.”
On Wednesday, Republican Rep. Andy Biggs of Arizona, a top Trump ally in Congress who co-chairs the Congressional Border Security Caucus, also painted the Canadian announcement as a victory for Trump.
“That’s what happens when you have a strong leader come in and lay down markers,” he told reporters during a press conference with caucus members.
Yet when asked if the border security plan will be enough to prevent Trump’s tariff threat, Biggs couldn’t say.
“I don’t know,” he said, before turning to his colleagues behind him to ask if they had “any insight.” No one responded, and a couple of them shook their heads.
“I simply don’t know,” Biggs said.
“You’re asking me to read the mind of President Trump. I will say that I support him and he’s doing a masterful job. He’s an incredible leader.”
Biggs added he wanted to see Canada and the U.S. work together to solve the “border crisis” together while remaining key trading partners and respecting each other’s sovereignty. He also expressed similar wishes for Mexico, which has been the primary focus for immigration concerns in the U.S.
Trump himself hasn’t commented on Ottawa’s border plan, instead continuing to criticize the trade deficit between Canada and the U.S., which he states is over US$100 million and incorrectly calls a subsidy.
The U.S. Trade Representative says the U.S. trade deficit on goods and services with Canada was US$53.5 billion in 2022.
While Canada does generally send more goods and services to the U.S. than it buys, officials like Alberta Premier Danielle Smith have pointed out Canada also exports billions of dollars of raw materials that American manufacturers and consumers covet, including $124 billion in oil exports last year alone.
“A subsidy implies something for nothing, but we are getting tangible things that Americans want and need,” Dan Anthony, managing director of Trade Partnership Worldwide, told Global News.
Canadian officials have been seized with preparing for the possibility of tariffs while calling for improvements at the border to satisfy Trump’s demands.
Although premiers like Ontario’s Doug Ford have said they support the federal government’s border security plan, they have said the likelihood is high that Trump will follow through on his threat.
“Folks, this is coming,” Ford said last week after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau briefed the premiers on the border plan in a closed-door meeting. “We need to be prepared.”
Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc, who also still holds the public safety portfolio and unveiled the border security plan Tuesday, told reporters at an unrelated press conference in New Brunswick Thursday that he’s “encouraged” by the conversations he and other ministers have had with Trump’s administration about tariffs and the border.
He said he had a “very positive preliminary call” with Trump’s “border czar” Tom Holman this week, and the two have agreed to discuss the border security plan in the coming days.
“I’m confident that we have a cordial collaborative discussion (underway) with President Trump’s incoming administration,” LeBlanc said. “But we have a lot of work to do.”
That includes continuing to make the case to the administration and Republican officials that tariffs would also negatively impact American consumers as well as the Canadian economy, the minister added.
“If (Trump) won an election largely on the cost of living in the United States, this may not be the best way to answer that concern in the United States as well,” he said.
“We have an attentive ear. We have a cordial series of counterparts that want to work with us. But the work isn’t finished, and we’ve got to work right up until Jan. 20 and then after he’s inaugurated and he takes office with his incoming administration, we’ve got to continue doing that work.”
A new report by lobby group Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters released Thursday found nearly nine in 10 of the more than 300 Canadian manufacturers surveyed would face significant or very severe impacts if the U.S. imposes tariffs on Canadian imports.
Gary Hufbauer, a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told Global News a 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian goods could cut exports to the U.S. by almost half, according to some estimates.
Even if Canada can pivot and export more to other countries, that would still lead to a likely net decline of about 20 per cent, he said — resulting in an overall drop of four per cent to the Canadian economy.
“In terms of economic magnitudes, that’s a pretty big number,” he said.
But Hufbauer said 25 per cent tariffs would also lead to price spikes on individual items that American consumers enjoy and rely on Canadian supply chains, such as beer and agricultural products.
The overall U.S. price level would rise by “a tenth of one per cent,” he said, based on his own calculations that only account for the threatened U.S. tariff without any retaliation from Canada.
“That sounds small, and it is small, but it’s still meaningful,” he said.
The Quinnipiac poll was sharply split among party lines, with 76 per cent of Republicans supporting Trump’s tariff plan and 89 per cent of Democrats against. Critically, among independent voters who helped win Trump the presidency, 53 per cent said they opposed tariffs in the poll, which had a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points.
“Will tariffs targeting foreign countries, intended to level the import-export playing field, end up hurting Americans at home? The numbers could suggest that’s exactly what voters fear will happen,” Quinnipiac polling analyst Tim Malloy said in a statement.
—with files from Global’s Mackenzie Gray and the Canadian Press