The Liberals are projected to win Monday night’s federal election, but in Manitoba — especially outside Winnipeg — not much appears to have changed as results continue to roll in.
Five of the six ridings in rural Manitoba came into the election having been represented by Conservative candidates, with only Churchill—Keewatinook Aski, covering a huge section of the province’s far north, represented by the NDP.
Rural results in 2025 played out largely the same as they did in 2021, with Tory dominance in five ridings.
Portage-Lisgar stayed blue, with incumbent Branden Leslie continuing 20-plus years of Conservative representation. Longtime MP Ted Falk is back in Provencher, a seat he’s held since 2013. Dan Mazier is back in Riding Mountain, and James Bezan will return for a fourth term in Selkirk-Interlake-Eastman.
One notable difference is the election of Conservative Grant Jackson in Brandon-Souris, replacing longtime MP and former MLA Larry Maguire, who bowed out of the race due to health concerns. Jackson defeated Liberal Ghazanfar Ali Tarar and Quentin Robinson of the NDP by a wide margin.
In Churchill—Keewatinook Aski, Niki Ashton lost the seat she’s held since 2008, which flipped to Liberal Rebecca Chartrand.
In Winnipeg, the landscape was slightly more diverse coming into Monday night.
In 2021, two Conservative candidates were elected, along with four Liberals and two members of the NDP.
A number of changes have taken place prior to the 2025 election, including the departure of Elmwood-Transcona MP Daniel Blaikie (NDP), who left his position in March 2024 for a provincial role. He was succeeded in a by-election last September by the NDP’s Leila Dance — as of 12:15 a.m. on Tuesday, Dance was trailing behind Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds.
“Obviously (the results) weren’t what we were hoping for,” Dance said. “We were hoping for victory, but things just didn’t go our way today — that happens.”
Longtime Liberal MP and former cabinet minister Dan Vandal also stepped down from his St. Boniface-St.Vital seat prior to the election, leaving the field open for Ginette Lavack to hold on to the seat for the party Monday.
Winnipeg Centre saw NDP incumbent Leah Gazan and Liberal Rahul Walia in a tight race for the longtime orange stronghold. Gazan faced heavy competition in an election that trended down for the NDP across the nation. Gazan was ahead of her Liberal challenger as of early Tuesday.
Winnipeg South, a riding also seen as a bellwether, Liberal incumbent Terry Duguid — minister of environment and climate change in Mark Carney’s cabinet — has won his seat over competitors Janice Morley-Lecomte of the Conservatives and the NDP’s Joanne Bjornson.
Duguid said Monday that he’s looking forward to a government led by Prime Minister Mark Carney.
“Prime Minister Carney has the skills, the experience and the calm resolve that are needed to take us through these extraordinary times,” he said, “these times of crisis.”
In the hotly-contested Winnipeg West riding — formerly known as Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley — Conservative incumbent Marty Morantz, a former city councillor, was defeated by Liberal challenger Doug Eyolfson. Eyolfson was mounting a comeback campaign after serving as the riding’s MP from 2015-2019.
Two additional Liberal re-elections, in Winnipeg North and Winnipeg South Centre, will see the return of Kevin Lamoureux and Ben Carr, respectively.
Winnipeg election check-in
