It might be obvious to anyone who looks out the window this week at all of the melted snow, but Manitoba is expected to have a warmer-than-average winter this year.
Environment and Climate Change Canada’s senior climatologist, David Phillips, told 680 CJOB’s The Start that this time last year, the average temperature in Winnipeg was -15C — a far cry from Tuesday morning’s high of 8 C.
“It’s 10 degrees warmer than it should be, and tomorrow (it’ll be) up there too,” Phillips said.
“Even when it cools off, it’s still going to above what you normally would get. You normally would get highs of maybe -2 C, lows of -10 C, and even later for the weekend, we see temperatures of plus-2 C, plus-5 C — and that’s clearly five to eight degrees warmer than what you’d expect for this time of the year.
“There’s a large ridge over the continent that’s pumping this California air, right from El Niño. It’s bringing these almost un-Winnipeg-like temperatures to many parts of the Prairies.”
Phillips said while the cold isn’t cancelled for the season, he expects we will have a milder winter.
“There’s no guarantee, but there’s a pretty good chance that this is going to be a milder-than-normal winter, and it just means you’ll have more of these weeks where you’ve got some melting going on.
“I think there’s going to be a winter for everybody, (including) people who don’t like winter but can’t go south to escape it.”
You might notice temperature forecasts being a bit too cold during this warm spell. Like in the spring, weather models sometimes underestimate temperatures when the snow pack is deteriorating. As snow turns to bare ground, more sunlight is absorbed, and temperatures are warmer.
— Scott Kehler (@scottdkehler) November 14, 2023
Scott Kehler of Weatherlogics told 680 CJOB’s Connecting Winnipeg the milder forecast doesn’t mean Manitoba won’t see blizzards throughout the season, but the snowfall will likely be less than we’re used to.
“A warm winter is usually also a less snowy winter,” Kehler said.
“People think that it snows when it’s warmer, but actually, the weather pattern that causes warm weather also tends to be a pattern that favours less snow.”
Kehler said the warm fronts are similar to chinooks that are seen out west, but not exactly the same.
“(It’s) called down-sloping, where the wind flows from the higher terrain to our west in Saskatchewan and western Manitoba, and as it flows down that higher terrain, the air warms a little bit and gives us warmer temperatures.”
